Church & Discipleship Stats

Discipleship Culture and Multiplication

  • Low Prevalence of Reproducing Disciple-Making Culture

    • Fewer than 5% of U.S. churches have a reproducing disciple-making culture.

      • Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter

  • Absence of Viral-Movement Style Churches

    • No Level 5 (viral-movement style) disciple-making churches were found in the U.S. sample.

      • Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter

  • Overestimation by Pastors

    • Most pastors overestimate the effectiveness of their church’s disciple-making culture.

      • Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter

  • Limited Awareness of the Great Commission

    • Only 17% of Christians in the U.S. know what the Great Commission is and what it means.

      • Source: Barna Research

Church Closures and Membership Decline

  • Church Closures Outpacing Plants

    • Church closures are now outpacing church plants 3 to 1.

      • Note, Carey says it’s possibly 4k to 10k closing each year.

      • Source: Carey Nieuwhof https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4

    • In 2019, 4,500 churches closed while only 3,000 were planted.

      • Source: Religion News Service, 2021

    • Every year, about 4,000 churches are planted in the U.S. And every year, about 3,700 churches close.

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

  • Projected Church Closures

    • By 2050, an estimated 176,000 churches will close in the U.S.

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

  • Church Growth and Decline Trends

    • 3 out of 4 churches are dying (73% are in decline)

      • Original study done by Thom Rainer

      • https://www.preachandlead.com/blog/most-churches-are-in-decline-heres-a-roadmap-to-growth

      • https://churchanswers.com/blog/dispelling-80-percent-myth-declining-churches/

      • https://www.churchleaderinsights.com/73-of-american-churches-are-declining-by-thom-rainer/

    • Only 33% of churches report growth, while 54% are in decline.

      • Source: COVID Religion Research Project, 2023

  • Aging Church Demographics

    • The median age of a church in America is 64 years (evangelical) and 105 years (mainline).

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

Pastoral Health and Leadership Pipeline

  • Aging Pastoral Workforce

    • The average age of a senior pastor in the U.S. is now 57.

      • Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group

    • Half of all pastors are over the age of 55.

      • Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group

  • Low Flourishing Among Younger Leaders

    • Only 7% of church leaders under age 45 say they are flourishing.

      • Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group

  • Pastoral Burnout and Mental Health

    • 42% of pastors considered quitting in 2022.

      • Source: Barna Research, 2022

    • 18% of pastors reported suicidal ideation or self-harm in the past year.

      • Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group

Disaffiliation and Church Attendance

  • Declining Church Attendance

    • On any given weekend, only 30% of Americans attend religious services.

      • Source: Gallup, 2021–2023

    • Weekly church attendance has declined from 42% to 30% in 20 years.

      • Source: Gallup, 2003–2023 comparison

  • Rising Disaffiliation Among Youth

    • Since 2020, Gen Z who never attend church rose from 28% to 37%.

      • Source: Barna Group, 2023

  • Shifting Religious Identification

    • 90% of Americans identified as Christian in 1990; only 63% did in 2023.

      • Source: Pew Research Center

    • In 2023, 29% of Americans identified as atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated—up from 8% in 1990.

      • Source: Pew Research Center

Base Scenario: The Great Opportunity by 2050

  • Youth Disaffiliation

    • 35 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate from Christianity by 2050 (~1 million per year).

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

  • Decline in Christian Population

    • The Christian population will decline from 73% to 59%.

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

  • Growth in Unaffiliated Population

    • The unaffiliated population will grow by 50 million—from 17% to 30% of the U.S. population.

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

Worse Case Scenario by 2050

  • Higher Youth Disaffiliation

    • 42 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate by 2050 (~1.4 million per year).

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

  • Steeper Decline in Christian Population

    • Christian population drops from 73% to 54%.

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

  • Significant Growth in Unaffiliated Population

    • The unaffiliated population will more than double—reaching 70 million and 35% of the population.

      • Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation

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Everyday Discipleship, Sending People Out, and Reframing Church Around Discipleship