Church & Discipleship Stats
Discipleship Culture and Multiplication
Low Prevalence of Reproducing Disciple-Making Culture
Fewer than 5% of U.S. churches have a reproducing disciple-making culture.
Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter
Absence of Viral-Movement Style Churches
No Level 5 (viral-movement style) disciple-making churches were found in the U.S. sample.
Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter
Overestimation
Most churches overestimate the effectiveness of their church’s disciple-making culture.
Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter
Limited Awareness of the Great Commission
Only 17% of Christians in the U.S. know what the Great Commission is and what it means.
Source: Barna Research
Church Closures and Membership Decline
The growth rate for U.S. Evangelical churches is only 0.8%.
At this rate, we will not keep up with population growth, leading to a guaranteed year-over-year decline.
Source: Joshua Project
Church Closures Outpacing Plants
Church closures are now outpacing church plants 3 to 1.
Note, Carey says it’s possibly 4k to 10k closing each year.
Source: Carey Nieuwhof https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4
In 2019, 4,500 churches closed while only 3,000 were planted.
Source: Religion News Service, 2021
Every year, about 4,000 churches are planted in the U.S. And every year, about 3,700 churches close.
We anticipate that number will grow to at least 5,500 per year over the next 30 years.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Projected Church Closures
By 2050, an estimated 176,000 churches will close in the U.S.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Church Growth and Decline Trends
3 out of 4 churches are dying (73% are in decline)
Original study done by Thom Rainer
https://www.preachandlead.com/blog/most-churches-are-in-decline-heres-a-roadmap-to-growth
https://churchanswers.com/blog/dispelling-80-percent-myth-declining-churches/
https://www.churchleaderinsights.com/73-of-american-churches-are-declining-by-thom-rainer/
Only 33% of churches report growth, while 54% are in decline.
Source: COVID Religion Research Project, 2023
Pastoral Health and Leadership Pipeline
Aging Pastoral Workforce
The average age of a senior pastor in the U.S. is now 57.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Half of all pastors are over the age of 55.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Low Flourishing Among Younger Leaders
Only 7% of church leaders under age 45 say they are flourishing.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Pastoral Burnout and Mental Health
42% of pastors considered quitting in 2022.
Source: Barna Research, 2022
18% of pastors reported suicidal ideation or self-harm in the past year.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Disaffiliation and Church Attendance
Declining Church Attendance
On any given weekend, only 30% of Americans attend religious services.
Source: Gallup, 2021–2023
Weekly church attendance has declined from 42% to 30% in 20 years.
Source: Gallup, 2003–2023 comparison
Rising Disaffiliation Among Youth
Since 2020, Gen Z who never attend church rose from 28% to 37%.
Source: Barna Group, 2023
Shifting Religious Identification
90% of Americans identified as Christian in 1990; only 63% did in 2023.
Source: Pew Research Center
In 2023, 29% of Americans identified as atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated—up from 8% in 1990.
Source: Pew Research Center
Base Scenario: The Great Opportunity by 2050
Youth Disaffiliation
35 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate from Christianity by 2050 (~1 million per year).
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Decline in Christian Population
The Christian population will decline from 73% to 59%.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Growth in Unaffiliated Population
The unaffiliated population will grow by 50 million—from 17% to 30% of the U.S. population.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Worse Case Scenario by 2050
Higher Youth Disaffiliation
42 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate by 2050 (~1.4 million per year).
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Steeper Decline in Christian Population
Christian population drops from 73% to 54%.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Significant Growth in Unaffiliated Population
The unaffiliated population will more than double—reaching 70 million and 35% of the population.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
