Church & Discipleship Stats
Discipleship Culture and Multiplication
Low Prevalence of Reproducing Disciple-Making Culture
Fewer than 5% of U.S. churches have a reproducing disciple-making culture.
Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter
Absence of Viral-Movement Style Churches
No Level 5 (viral-movement style) disciple-making churches were found in the U.S. sample.
Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter
Overestimation by Pastors
Most pastors overestimate the effectiveness of their church’s disciple-making culture.
Source: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches, Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter
Limited Awareness of the Great Commission
Only 17% of Christians in the U.S. know what the Great Commission is and what it means.
Source: Barna Research
Church Closures and Membership Decline
Church Closures Outpacing Plants
Church closures are now outpacing church plants 3 to 1.
Note, Carey says it’s possibly 4k to 10k closing each year.
Source: Carey Nieuwhof https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PKOHKEqhf4
In 2019, 4,500 churches closed while only 3,000 were planted.
Source: Religion News Service, 2021
Every year, about 4,000 churches are planted in the U.S. And every year, about 3,700 churches close.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Projected Church Closures
By 2050, an estimated 176,000 churches will close in the U.S.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Church Growth and Decline Trends
3 out of 4 churches are dying (73% are in decline)
Original study done by Thom Rainer
https://www.preachandlead.com/blog/most-churches-are-in-decline-heres-a-roadmap-to-growth
https://churchanswers.com/blog/dispelling-80-percent-myth-declining-churches/
https://www.churchleaderinsights.com/73-of-american-churches-are-declining-by-thom-rainer/
Only 33% of churches report growth, while 54% are in decline.
Source: COVID Religion Research Project, 2023
Aging Church Demographics
The median age of a church in America is 64 years (evangelical) and 105 years (mainline).
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Pastoral Health and Leadership Pipeline
Aging Pastoral Workforce
The average age of a senior pastor in the U.S. is now 57.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Half of all pastors are over the age of 55.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Low Flourishing Among Younger Leaders
Only 7% of church leaders under age 45 say they are flourishing.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Pastoral Burnout and Mental Health
42% of pastors considered quitting in 2022.
Source: Barna Research, 2022
18% of pastors reported suicidal ideation or self-harm in the past year.
Source: State of Pastors 2024, Barna Group
Disaffiliation and Church Attendance
Declining Church Attendance
On any given weekend, only 30% of Americans attend religious services.
Source: Gallup, 2021–2023
Weekly church attendance has declined from 42% to 30% in 20 years.
Source: Gallup, 2003–2023 comparison
Rising Disaffiliation Among Youth
Since 2020, Gen Z who never attend church rose from 28% to 37%.
Source: Barna Group, 2023
Shifting Religious Identification
90% of Americans identified as Christian in 1990; only 63% did in 2023.
Source: Pew Research Center
In 2023, 29% of Americans identified as atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated—up from 8% in 1990.
Source: Pew Research Center
Base Scenario: The Great Opportunity by 2050
Youth Disaffiliation
35 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate from Christianity by 2050 (~1 million per year).
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Decline in Christian Population
The Christian population will decline from 73% to 59%.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Growth in Unaffiliated Population
The unaffiliated population will grow by 50 million—from 17% to 30% of the U.S. population.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Worse Case Scenario by 2050
Higher Youth Disaffiliation
42 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate by 2050 (~1.4 million per year).
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Steeper Decline in Christian Population
Christian population drops from 73% to 54%.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Significant Growth in Unaffiliated Population
The unaffiliated population will more than double—reaching 70 million and 35% of the population.
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
