Church & Discipleship Statistics: The Data Behind the Crisis
Last Updated: February 2026
The American church has a discipleship problem — and the data makes it impossible to ignore. We compiled these stats from peer-reviewed research, national surveys, and foundation reports so you don't have to dig through dozens of sources. Every number is cited. Bookmark this page.
For the full picture, we recommend three reports. They shaped our understanding of the crisis — and the process we built in response:
Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches — Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter Research
The Great Opportunity — Pinetops Foundation (projections through 2050)
Our State of the Church & Discipleship Report — Ordinary Movement's analysis and response
Discipleship Culture & Multiplication
Fewer than 5% of U.S. churches have a reproducing disciple-making culture. (Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter Research)
Zero Level 5 (viral-movement style) disciple-making churches were found in the U.S. sample. (Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter Research)
Most churches overestimate the effectiveness of their disciple-making culture. (Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter Research)
Only 17% of Christians in the U.S. know what the Great Commission is and what it means. (Barna Group)
93% of pastors say discipleship is a priority — but only 28% have a clear process for it. (Barna Group)
Only 1 in 10 born-again adults is actively discipling someone else. (Barna Group)
39% of Christians are not engaged in any form of discipleship. (Barna Group)
Only 4% of American adults hold a biblical worldview. (Barna Group, American Worldview Inventory)
Church Closures & Membership Decline
The growth rate for U.S. Evangelical churches is only 0.8% — not keeping pace with population growth. (Joshua Project)
Church closures are outpacing church plants 3 to 1. (Carey Nieuwhof; Religion News Service)
In 2019, 4,500 churches closed while only 3,000 were planted. (Religion News Service, 2021)
Every year, about 4,000 churches are planted and about 3,700 close. That number is projected to grow to 5,500 closures per year over the next 30 years. (The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation)
By 2050, an estimated 176,000 churches will close in the U.S. (The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation)
3 out of 4 churches are in decline (73%). (Thom Rainer, LifeWay Research)
Only 33% of churches report growth, while 54% are in decline. (COVID Religion Research Project, 2023)
Pastoral Health & Leadership Pipeline
The average age of a senior pastor in the U.S. is 57. (State of Pastors Vol. 2, Barna Group, 2024)
Half of all pastors are over the age of 55. (State of Pastors Vol. 2, Barna Group, 2024)
The median age of pastors has risen from 44 to 54 over the last 25 years. (Barna Group + Pepperdine University)
42% of pastors considered quitting full-time ministry in 2022. (Barna Group, 2022)
One-third of pastors considered quitting in 2023. (State of Pastors Vol. 2, Barna Group, 2024)
46% of pastors under age 45 have considered quitting — compared to 34% of pastors 45+. (Barna Group, 2022)
40% of pastors show a high risk of burnout — up from 11% in 2015. (Barna Group, Resilient Pastor Initiative)
50% of pastors under 45 and 51% of women in church leadership are at high risk of burnout. (Barna Group, Resilient Pastor Initiative)
60% of pastors have significantly doubted their calling. (State of Pastors Vol. 2, Barna Group, 2024)
18% of pastors reported suicidal ideation or self-harm in the past year. (State of Pastors Vol. 2, Barna Group, 2024)
65% of pastors report feelings of loneliness and isolation — up from 42% in 2015. (Barna Group, 2023–2025)
Only 22% of pastors receive regular spiritual support from a mentor or peer network — down from 37% in 2015. (Barna Group, 2022)
Pastors reporting "excellent" physical well-being dropped from 24% (2015) to 11% (2023). (State of Pastors Vol. 2, Barna Group, 2024)
Pastors reporting "excellent" mental/emotional well-being dropped from 39% (2015) to 14% (2023). (State of Pastors Vol. 2, Barna Group, 2024)
Disaffiliation & Church Attendance
On any given weekend, only 30% of Americans attend religious services. (Gallup, 2021–2023)
Weekly church attendance has declined from 42% to 30% in 20 years. (Gallup, 2003–2023 comparison)
90% of Americans identified as Christian in 1990; only 63% did in 2023. (Pew Research Center)
29% of Americans now identify as atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated — up from 8% in 1990. (Pew Research Center)
Over 40 million Americans have disaffiliated from Christianity since the 1990s. (Pew Research Center)
Since 2020, Gen Z who never attend church rose from 28% to 37%. (Barna Group, 2023)
The Discipleship Disconnect: A Study in Irony
Recent data from Lifeway Research reveals a significant gap between how pastors prioritize their ministry time and how much of that effort actually sticks with the congregation.
1. The Strategy: Banking on the Pulpit
For many U.S. Protestant pastors, the weekly sermon isn’t just a part of the service; it is the primary engine for spiritual growth.
The Priority: 89% of pastors use the sermon as a primary approach to discipleship.
The Reliance: 33% of pastors cite the sermon as the most important part of their adult discipleship ministry—ranking it higher than small groups (18%) or one-on-one mentoring (7%).
The Confidence: Corporate worship is the function pastors are most likely to say their church does best (30%), while discipleship ranks at the very bottom (11%).
2. The Irony: The Wednesday Wipeout
The irony lies in the "shelf life" of the very tool pastors rely on most. While leadership pours the majority of their time and confidence into the Sunday message, the retention data suggests the impact is fleeting:
The 72-Hour Fade: Research suggests that 90% to 94% of churchgoers cannot remember specific details of the sermon by Wednesday.
Rapid Loss: Within just three days, approximately 95% of the content is forgotten entirely.
3. The Takeaway
We have a "Discipleship Deficit" where the most-used tool (the sermon) has the lowest long-term retention, yet the most effective tools for retention—such as mentoring and groups —are the least utilized by leadership.
The Bottom Line: Pastors are most confident in the area (corporate worship/preaching) that churchgoers are statistically most likely to forget within 72 hours.
Sources: https://julieroys.com/survey-pastors-say-church-does-worship-services-well-discipleship-ranks-last/ , https://research.lifeway.com/2025/08/21/discipleship-is-a-priority-without-a-plan-for-many-churches/
Projections Through 2050
Source: The Great Opportunity, Pinetops Foundation
Base Scenario:
35 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate from Christianity by 2050 (~1 million per year).
The Christian population will decline from 73% to 59%.
The unaffiliated population will grow by 50 million — from 17% to 30% of the U.S. population.
Worse Case Scenario:
42 million youth raised in Christian homes will disaffiliate by 2050 (~1.4 million per year).
Christian population drops from 73% to 54%.
The unaffiliated population will more than double — reaching 70 million and 35% of the population.
What These Numbers Mean
These aren't just statistics. They're people. Every closed church represents a community that lost its anchor. Every pastor who walks away represents a congregation without a shepherd. Every young person who disaffiliates represents someone who never saw the Gospel lived out — only performed.
The numbers tell us that what we're doing isn't working. Not because the Gospel has lost its power — but because the model has lost its way. We're producing consumers, not disciples. Audiences, not disciple-makers.
That's why Ordinary Movement exists. Not to replace the church — but to equip ordinary believers with a reproducible discipleship process that produces multiplication. Since 2018, that process has grown to 245+ groups across 35+ states, with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th generation groups multiplying.
The crisis is real. But so is the solution. It starts with one person willing to lead one group.
Sources
Research Organizations: Barna Group — barna.com | Pew Research Center — pewresearch.org | Gallup — gallup.com
Reports: Discipleship-Making in U.S. Churches — Discipleship.org + Exponential + Grey Matter Research | The Great Opportunity — Pinetops Foundation (greatopportunity.org) | State of Pastors, Volume 2 — Barna Group, 2024 | COVID Religion Research Project, 2023 |
Additional Sources: Joshua Project | Religion News Service | Thom Rainer / LifeWay Research | Carey Nieuwhof
Compiled by Ordinary Movement. If you use these stats, we'd appreciate a link back.
